Polymarket Data
The Strategy Builder reads Polymarket, a prediction market where people trade on the probability of real-world events, as a live signal source. Drop any Polymarket outcome into an Indicator node and your strategy can act on how the crowd prices an event as well as on how the chart moves.
When the odds on an election, a macro print, or a crypto-specific outcome cross a level you set, the strategy acts. Combine a Polymarket condition with standard price and indicator conditions using AND / OR logic to build a thesis that has to agree on more than one front before it commits.
Polymarket is only a reference-price signal here. You do not trade on it through Synchronicity. It reads the probabilities into your condition and never routes an order there. When the condition is met, your strategy still executes on Hyperliquid perpetuals, the same as with any other feed.
What the data represents
Each Polymarket market has a question (“Will BTC close above $150,000 this year?”) and a set of outcomes. Each outcome has a current price expressed as a probability between 0 and 1. A price of 0.72 means the market is pricing that outcome at 72%.
That probability number is what feeds into your condition. You compare it against a threshold with an operator like > or <, and you can combine it with price indicators using AND / OR logic.
Browsing and searching markets
Inside the Indicator node’s toolbox, there is a Polymarket section. By default it opens on a curated list, headed Curated · market-moving, grouped into theme tabs. Type at least two characters in the search field and the tabs step aside for a plain keyword search across every live market.
Each market in the list shows:
| Field | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Question | The event being predicted |
| Category | Topic tag (e.g. Crypto, Politics, Economy) |
| End date | When the market settles and trading closes |
| Volume | Total volume traded in the market since it opened |
The curation tabs
Polymarket lists far more markets than a trading strategy has any use for. Sports results, box-office takes, and word-count bets on public figures all carry real volume without telling you anything about a BTC position. The curated view exists to keep them out of your way.
Five tabs sit above the results:
| Tab | What it selects for |
|---|---|
| Top | The strongest markets overall, capped at seven per theme so one busy news cycle cannot fill the whole list |
| Macro | Central banks and rates, CPI and inflation, GDP and recession, jobs and payrolls, treasuries and yields, national debt, OPEC and oil production |
| Geopolitics | War, ceasefires, invasions, military strikes, nuclear tests and peace deals, shipping lanes and blockades |
| Business | Earnings, revenue and guidance, mergers and acquisitions, bankruptcies, IPOs, and product or protocol launches |
| Policy | Bills and legislation, regulators and enforcement, tariffs, sanctions and export controls, ETF approval decisions, and government votes |
A market lands in a tab because its question, slug, category, and tags match that theme’s language. A market that matches more than one theme is filed under the first that claims it, in the order Policy, Business, Geopolitics, Macro. A market matching none of the four is left out of the curated view entirely, though search still finds it.
What the ranking rewards
Inside each theme, markets are ordered by a score that multiplies five factors together. Each one explains part of why the list looks the way it does.
- Activity. Recent volume weighs more heavily than lifetime volume, so a market the crowd is trading today outranks one that was busy last quarter.
- Uncertainty. A market priced above 95% on its leading outcome is nearly settled and scores at a quarter weight. Anything at or above 99% is dropped outright. A genuine coin flip scores highest, because a probability with room to move is the only kind a condition can act on.
- Settlement proximity. Markets settling sooner rank above markets settling years out.
- Theme evidence. A question matching several of a theme’s patterns outranks one matching a single keyword.
- Completeness. A market missing prices on its outcomes is discounted, and one with no outcomes at all scores zero.
What the curation removes
Some markets are excluded before ranking ever runs. Sports and entertainment tags are filtered out wholesale. So are three shapes of question that would mislead a strategy:
- Direct price bets. “Will Bitcoin close above $150,000?” is not a signal about BTC. It is a slower, thinner copy of the price feed you already have. Read the price feed instead.
- Valuation bets. Market cap, fully diluted valuation, and “largest company” questions belong to the same family.
- Novelty markets. Box office, awards, and word-count bets carry volume and carry nothing you can trade on.
One market per event survives, so a single election does not crowd the list with variations of the same question. And every market shown settles in the future, since a market whose end date has passed is a frozen number wearing a live label.
The tabs are a starting point rather than a boundary. If you have a specific market in mind, search for it. Search runs against live markets and skips the curation filters entirely, so a question the curated view left out is still one query away.
Binary markets (Yes / No)
Most markets are binary. They have exactly two outcomes: Yes and No. The probability bar shows the current split. Two buttons appear below: If settles Yes and If settles No. Click either one to add that outcome’s probability as a data feed to your condition.
Example: A BTC price market shows Yes at 68%, No at 32%. You add the “Yes” outcome. Your condition can then read that 0.68 probability and compare it against any threshold you set.
Multi-outcome markets
Some markets have three or more outcomes (candidates in an election, for example). Each outcome appears as its own row with its current probability. Click any row to add that outcome’s probability to your condition.
Using Polymarket data in a condition
Once you add an outcome, it appears as a data feed block in your Indicator workspace. The value is a decimal probability (0 to 1). Use a comparison operator to define when the condition is met.
Example setups:
"Will ETH hit $8,000?" Yes probability > 0.60: true when the market prices this above 60%"US recession this year?" Yes probability > 0.50: true when the market tips above even odds- Multi-outcome:
"Lead candidate wins the election" probability < 0.30: true when the market drops below 30%
You can combine Polymarket conditions with standard price and indicator conditions using AND / OR logic.
Before you deploy
Once a strategy is live, this feed travels the same path as every other one. The Oracles page covers how the Polymarket feed reaches a deployed strategy, and what the engine does when a read is late or missing.
Markets have end dates. When a Polymarket market settles, its outcome resolves to 0 or 1 and trading closes. A strategy still running on that feed stops getting fresh data, and a condition reading a frozen value can behave in ways you did not intend. Check end dates before deploying a strategy that leans on a specific market.
Probabilities move. Polymarket prices update continuously as participants trade. The same event can swing from 30% to 70% on new information. Set thresholds that account for that range of movement rather than only the price showing today.
Volume varies. High-volume markets have tighter spreads and steadier prices. Low-volume markets can swing wider and trip a condition unexpectedly. The volume figure shown for each market is your read on how liquid it is.
Pair a Polymarket condition with a price or indicator condition using AND, so the event probability and the price action both have to agree before the strategy commits.